Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.451885 0.521716 0.597829 0.686826 0.787903 0.899004 1.030241
2025-08-17 0.328603 0.422344 0.534728 0.678805 0.857970 1.072749 1.348985
2025-08-24 0.259119 0.360781 0.491560 0.670879 0.908921 1.212439 1.626865
2025-08-31 0.207471 0.309075 0.447744 0.648806 0.930442 1.308045 1.849131
2025-09-07 0.186687 0.294380 0.448810 0.683343 1.026694 1.506288 2.220921
2025-09-14 0.156429 0.260482 0.416896 0.665090 1.043834 1.593469 2.442700
2025-09-21 0.132392 0.231980 0.388394 0.646853 1.056562 1.672207 2.655203
2025-09-28 0.113664 0.208951 0.364889 0.632468 1.071834 1.753530 2.875201
2025-10-05 0.103642 0.198929 0.360713 0.647809 1.134147 1.910297 3.221474
2025-10-12 0.097832 0.195351 0.366581 0.679847 1.225662 2.119082 3.664376
2025-10-19 0.090296 0.187491 0.363895 0.696418 1.291908 2.290918 4.058702
2025-10-26 0.082283 0.177566 0.356205 0.702918 1.340612 2.436199 4.417992
2025-11-02 0.073793 0.165745 0.344031 0.700617 1.374645 2.561129 4.755860
2025-11-09 0.065500 0.153180 0.329019 0.691446 1.395405 2.664757 5.065169
2025-11-16 0.058397 0.142057 0.315429 0.683308 1.416812 2.770290 5.384298
2025-11-23 0.050845 0.128786 0.295812 0.660852 1.408231 2.819726 5.604079
2025-11-30 0.049254 0.128850 0.304034 0.695978 1.515393 3.091469 6.252481
2025-12-07 0.043417 0.118034 0.287538 0.677415 1.512800 3.154375 6.511201
2025-12-14 0.038299 0.108161 0.271894 0.658866 1.508202 3.212359 6.763359
2025-12-21 0.034059 0.099827 0.258713 0.644234 1.510216 3.282914 7.043873
2025-12-28 0.032162 0.097328 0.258903 0.659838 1.578351 3.490731 7.610240
2026-01-04 0.031387 0.097742 0.266135 0.692423 1.686243 3.786719 8.372644
2026-01-11 0.029765 0.095565 0.266723 0.709276 1.760227 4.016828 9.013641